On February 4th, an American F-22 fighter jet assigned to the U.S. Northern Command shot down a large, unmanned balloon over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of South Carolina. To many, this seemed like the end of a story that began a week earlier and saw North American people and their governments tracking the path of this balloon as it floated from coast to coast across the United States.
Days later, another unmanned flying craft was shot down. Then another, then another. After four were shot down, this topic almost completely disappeared from the news. So what was going on? In this case, the truth might not be as exciting as you think.
The Spark that Lit the Fire
The first balloon is the one which caused the most controversy. It is confirmed that this balloon came from China: White House officials declared that it was a spy balloon, while the Chinese government maintains that it was only a weather balloon that was blown off course.
This balloon originally entered United States airspace over Alaska on January 28th, passed through Canadian airspace, and was then spotted by civilians in Idaho on the afternoon of February 1st. Biden ordered it to be taken down, and once it was over open water it was shot down by fighter jets.
The United States Navy, Coast Guard, and FBI sprung into action, collecting all debris from the balloon. White House officials have stated that the balloon had sensors that were most likely used for surveillance and have declared it a spy balloon.
The takedown of this balloon is the first known peacetime takedown of an unauthorized aircraft over United States airspace. This combined with the Chinese origin of the balloon created major political disturbances within the USA and abroad. President Biden took criticism from Republicans, and Prime Minister Trudeau took criticism from Conservatives. Tensions rose, accusations flew, and the developments even led some people to fear all-out war.
Airspace Under Attack?
The next unmanned aircraft was detected on February 9th off the coast of Alaska and shot down the next day. The next one came down on February 11th, this time over Canadian airspace in the Yukon Territory. The fourth craft was shot down the next day, February 12th, over Lake Huron.
These three are “unmanned aircraft”, because they were unspecified forms of aircraft, rather than balloons specifically. What exactly they were is unclear and will probably never be clear – after days of searching, no debris from any of these three aircraft have been located. Given that two fell in deep water and one fell in a vast snow-covered landscape, it’s unlikely we’ll learn more any time soon.
What we do know is that the aircraft were much smaller in size, and they were all different. They were flying much lower, around half the height of the Chinese balloon. The uncertainty behind the origins of these aircrafts, and the frequency they seem to be popping up, caused unrest and fear in both Canada and the United States.
A Political Situation, not a Military One
The Chinese spy balloon was detected on January 28, days before it was shot down. NORAD, the USA and Canada’s collaborative air defense organization, tracked its path through Canada, and no action was taken. Biden was briefed on the balloon the day before it was spotted by civilians, but did not give a statement. It’s confirmed that four suspected Chinese spy balloons have floated over the United States in recent years – including three in Trump’s presidency.
What all of this tells us is that both the Canadian and American governments did not perceive this balloon or the ones before it as significant threats to either country’s safety. The head of NORAD stated that the balloon “did not present a physical military threat to North America”. While Biden knew about the balloon and that it was a Chinese spy balloon before the public, it was only after headlines began to pop up that he ordered it shot down.
New Radar Settings, New Balloons
NORAD has a network of satellites and radar that are designed to track intrusions into North American airspace. Under normal circumstances, these systems are calibrated to only detect large, fast-moving objects. There are so many balloons being flown by government organizations and private companies that having the settings tuned to smaller objects would overwhelm the system. Due to the sheer size of the first balloon – as big as three school buses – it triggered these detection systems and NORAD was able to track its path.
After this balloon was shot down, NORAD recalibrated their radar detection systems to be more sensitive to small, slow-moving objects. Shortly after this, the next three unmanned aircraft were shot down all within a few days.
The most common question being asked about these mysterious aircrafts is where they came from so suddenly. Simply put, they have most likely always been there, we just haven’t been looking.
No Reason for Fear
Ever since the fourth aircraft was shot down, things have been quiet. It’s not yet clear if NORAD has adjusted their systems back to previous settings yet, but there aren’t any new reports of mysterious balloons. Biden has said that the three aircraft shot down after the Chinese balloon were harmless and has said they were probably flown by private companies for recreation or research.
Once it was realized that North America was not under invasion by Chinese balloons, these stories quickly disappeared from the media, largely without any concluding updates. So rest easy: we’re not seeing a new age of balloon warfare, and aliens are not trying to make contact. But if you’re into flying weather balloons as a hobby, you should probably hold off for a little while.
Sources
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