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Nicholas Qua
Oct 23, 202215 min read

Bugs Bugs Bugs: The Future of Food

Updated: Mar 8, 2023

Food shortages & the rise in prices


Countries worldwide have been plagued with high inflation for most of 2022. (See; WEF 2022, nytimes 2022, PCEpriceindex 2022, Forbes 2022). Hand-in-hand with global inflation is the rise in food prices and potential food shortages. Warnings and fears of food shortages and the global rise in food prices can be traced back to November 2021 (See; CNN 2021, VancouverSun 2021, Reuters 2021). As of September 2022, the warnings and fears are becoming a reality (See; NPR 2022, NewYorkPost 2022, Reuters 2022, WEF 2022, WorldBank 2022). The World Bank’s April 2022 report titled Commodity Markets Outlook states the main reason for food shortages is the War in Ukraine. The report states:


“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused major disruptions to the supply of commodities.

Both countries are key exporters of energy and agricultural products. The disruptions have

exacerbated existing stresses in commodity markets following the recovery from the COVID-19

pandemic, which saw rebounding global demand and constrained supplies after 2020. As a result,

commodity price volatility has surged, with food prices reaching levels not seen since the 2007-08

price spikes. Beyond their broader impact on inflation, supply disruptions of key commodities could

severely affect a wide range of industries, including food, construction, petrochemicals, and transport”

(World Bank, 2022 pg 4).


In 2020 and 2021, Russia was ranked as the top global wheat exporter with about 13% of global wheat production, and Ukraine was fifth with 8.5% of the worldwide output (See; WorldsTopExports 2021, ibtimes 2020). Statistica.com (2022) shows that excluding the European Union, China has been leading global wheat exports from 2016/2017-2020/2021, with India ranked second, Russia third, and Ukraine sixth. Nevertheless, Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports combined contribute to a significant amount of global wheat.


Another contributor to the global food problem is the scarcity of nitrogen fertilizer worldwide (See; nationalgeographic 2022, TheGuardian 2022, CNBC 2022, businessinsider 2022.) The nitrogen fertilizer shortage is blamed on the War in Ukraine. CNBC 2022 reports Russia exports “11% of the world’s urea (low-cost nitrogen fertilizer), and 48% of the ammonium nitrate. Russia and Ukraine together export 28% of fertilizers made from nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as potassium.” Without nitrogen fertilizers, farmers worldwide will struggle to grow the foods we rely on, raising the global price of food.


Luckily, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement in late July 2022, allowing both countries to resume exports through the Black Sea (See; TheAssociatedPress 2022, aljazeera.com 2022, TheGuardian 2022.) This new agreement may not lower prices immediately, though it seems like a step in the right direction. According to the 2022 United Nations FAO Food Price Index (updated monthly), international prices of vegetable oils, cereals, sugar, dairy, and meat have decreased slightly in September since record high prices in June.


The impact on countries


Global inflation and food shortages deeply affect low-income countries, already economically and politically unstable. Countries like Sri Lanka, Peru, Albania, Ghana, Panama, Argentina, Pakistan, Lebanon, Ecuador, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are only a few examples of countries on the verge of governmental collapse while facing economic and agricultural emergencies (See; CNN 2022, NPR 2022, SCMP 2022).


These troubling times have also sparked mass protests in these countries. Peru has seen massive civil unrest and protests in April 2022 due to inflation and food insecurity (See; CNN 2022, aljazeera 2022, WSWS 2022). Similarly, Panama has also seen considerable protests over inflation and food shortages in July 2022 (See; aljazeera 2022, abc 2022). Sri Lanka has been impacted the most, as the food and inflation protests have led President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and flee the country entirely (See; CNN 2022, dailysignal 2022, CNBC 2022).


Protests in Bangladesh:




Protests in Panama:



Protests in Albania:



Protests in Ecuador:



Protests in Ghana:



Protests in Sri Lanka:







Sri Lanka


Reports of the rise of food prices and economic stability in Sri Lanka began surfacing in late 2021 (See; foreignpolicy 2021, World Bank 2021). In early 2022, many more reports highlighted the troubling economic concerns heading Sri Lanka’s way (See; TheGuardian 2022, The WEF 2022, aljazeera 2022, CNN 2022). The economic crisis sparked protests in Sri Lanka starting in April 2022, with some protestors storming Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s home (See; TheGuardian 2022 a and TheGuardian 2022 b). In response to the protests, Gotabaya Rajapaksa declared a nationwide public emergency, allowing police and military to execute harsh consequences and actions toward protestors to squash the dissent (See; TheGuardian 2022).


These measures did not stop the protests, and the numbers began to increase as April went on, causing Rajapaksa to declare a second public emergency for five weeks (See; TheGuardian 2022). In June and July 2022, economic and civil instability in Sri Lanka would reach an extreme high with the country entering a complete economic shutdown (See; TheGuardian 2022, BBC News 2022). In July 2022, the protests led President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and flee the country entirely (See; Reuters 2022, CNN 2022, dailysignal 2022, CNBC 2022).


One contributor to Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is the fertilizer policies enacted by President Rajapaksa in 2021. In April 2021, President Rajapaksa implemented a nationwide fertilizer ban, becoming the world's first completely organic farming nation (See; SriLankaGuardian 2021, FAS.org 2021, Vox 2022, FAS.USDA 2021). This move propelled Sri Lanka to have a mere perfect Emissions Index Score of 99.5, ranking higher than countries such as Canada (93.3), The United States of America (48.9), Germany (94.4), and the Netherlands (98.5) (See; WorldEconomics). The World Economics website defines this index as: “Emissions Index (close to 100) indicates a low emission for the country. The Emissions Index is based on the equal weighting of Carbon and Methane emissions.”


Despite Sri Lanka’s high Emissions Index Score, President Rajapaksa’s nitrogen fertilizer ban resulted in a complete agricultural disaster for the country. Sri Lanka’s economy relies heavily on agricultural production and exports (See; World Bank Group 2021 pg 13, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2015 pg 7). Sri Lanka is also the fourth major tea producer in the world, producing 340 200 tonnes of tea (Figure 2) in 2013, with export earnings amounting to USD 1.46 billion (Figure 3).

Figure 1


Figure 2


Figure 3


After the fertilizer ban in Sri Lanka, 85% of farmers experienced mass crop loss (See; economists.com 2021). The mass crop loss contributed to inflation, hitting a 47-month high of 8.3% in October, with food inflation at 11.7% (See; Reuters 2021). Before 2021, tea exports paid for 71% of Sri Lanka’s food imports (See; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2015). After the fertilizer ban, tea production and exports in Sri Lanka fell 18% between November 2021-February 2022, reaching their lowest level in 23 years (See; France24 2022). ). In November 2021, President Rajapaksa repealed the fertilizer ban and offered $200 million in compensation to farmers, though the damage was done (See; aljazeera 2022).


Fertilizer & Green Policies


Amid the fertilizer shortage, some countries have enacted similar fertilizer policies as Sri Lanka. In June 2022, the Dutch government began implementing policies to reduce nitrogen pollution by up to 50-70% by 2030 (See; Reuters 2022, abcNews 2022). Along with the nitrogen reductions, the Dutch government has also planned for farmers to reduce their livestock by a considerable amount (about 30% from most reports) (See; Reuters 2022, TheGuardian 2021, theEpochTimes 2022 a, theEpochTimes 2022 b). The United States Department of Agriculture (June 2022) states that the Dutch government acknowledges “there is not a future for all Dutch farmers within this approach.” A report published by the New Zealand Foreign Affairs and Trade (June 2022) states that “The (Dutch) Minister of Nature and Nitrogen Policy expects about a third of the 50,000 Dutch farms to ‘disappear’ by 2030.” According to statistica.com (2022) and investopia.com (2022), the Netherlands ranks as the second leading global exporter of agricultural products in 2019-2020.


The Dutch farmers responded to these policies with mass protests:










Similarly, German, Italian, and Spanish farmers protest in solidarity with Dutch farmers against the rising energy prices and similar EU Agricultural Climate policies:

Germany:





Italy:




Spain:



The Canadian government is also implementing similar nitrogen fertilizer policies for farmers (See; equity.guru 2022, dailycaller 2022). The Government of Canada (2022) plans to “reduce absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with fertilizers by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.” Bloomberg.com (2022) estimates there could be “C$10.4 billion ($8.08 billion) that farmers could lose this decade from the reduced output.” and that “Canada could lose over 160 million metric tons of canola, corn and spring wheat between 2023 and 2030…That’s nearly double Canada’s expected grain production this season.” On top of fertilizer reductions, there has been a 35% tariff on all Russian imports, including nitrogen fertilizers (See; cbcNews 2022).


Ireland has also introduced agriculture policies affecting farmers. The Irish government plans to cut carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 (See; theguardian 2022). In order to hit these targets, farmers will have to cull 20% of their cattle numbers, 22% of the beef herd, and 18% of the dairy herd, equating to about 1.3 million herd animals (See; theguardian 2022). New Zealand is introducing an interesting tax on their farmers. New Zealand plans to tax farmers on cattle and sheep burps and farts (See; yahoo.ca 2022 and WebMD 2022). The New Zealand government calls this an “animal gas tax.”


These are just a few examples of governments worldwide implementing policies that directly affect farming and the future of agriculture, while there is a global food problem. Clearly by 2030, most countries want agricultural and farming emissions cut by a considerable amount. According to theguardian (2022), organic pasture-fed beef and lamb are the most damaging farm products. If countries are slowly leaning away from farming and agriculture, what does the future of food look like?


Engineered Food


In July 2017, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released an article titled Tech for dinner: how our food is changing as fast as our iPhoneson future technology and its importance in changing current human foodways. For the World Economic Forum, a decade from now:


“the food we eat today – and the systems behind it – may seem as outdated as a phone without

apps. Technology is accelerating change everywhere. The question is not whether it will reshape

how we make food, move it and eat it; the question is how. Imagine opening your fridge in 2030.

Maybe that pork came from a single pig cell, grown into “clean meat” in a lab. Perhaps that leftover

rice was gene-edited with CRISPR-Cas9 or the lettuce was produced with a personal “food computer”

in a city building, through a data recipe. Maybe the sustainability of the palm oil in your margarine

was monitored through satellites with advanced imaging power or the woman who grew your eggplants

was paid through via blockchain. Perhaps the fridge itself will be “smart”, sending you notifications

to eat the cheese before it goes green” (See; WEF 2017).


Bill Gates is leading the charge when it comes to the future of food. Gates calls for more genetically engineered food to alleviate the global food shortage and switch away from farming (See; SwitzerlandTimes 2022, abcNews 2022). Gates is pointing to new ‘magic seeds’ in particular. An essay from the Gates Foundation states:


“By breeding select varieties of the crop, the researchers believed they could produce a hybrid maize

that would be more resistant to hotter, drier climates. They succeeded wildly. When researchers in

Kenya compared plots of this new maize, which they called “DroughtTEGO®,” with the old one, they

saw the DroughtTEGO farms were producing an average of 66% more grain per acre. That harvest is

enough to feed a family of six for an entire year, and the family would still have so much surplus maize

that they could sell it for about $880, equivalent to five months of income for the average Kenyan. In fact,

many farmers could finally afford to send their kids to school or build new homes once they switched to

DroughtTEGO” (See; GatesFoundation.org 2022).


The Gates Foundation wants the production of these seeds to increase. A solution is:


“what researchers call “predictive modeling.” It’s artificial intelligence software that processes the

genome sequences of crops along with environmental data—everything from soil samples to satellite

imagery—and then conjures up a data-based vision of what farms will need to look like in the future.

From this computer model, researchers can identify the optimal plant variety for a particular place.

Or they can do the reverse: pinpoint the optimal place to grow a specific crop”


Gates is also at the forefront for pushing genetically engineered meat. In an MIT Technology Review (2021) interview, Gates believes:


“I don’t think the poorest 80 countries will be eating synthetic meat. I do think all rich countries should

move to 100% synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to

make it taste even better over time. Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort

of change the [behavior of] people or use regulation to totally shift the demand.”


China’s new 14th Five-Year Agricultural Plan includes “cultivated” (lab-grown) meat, as well as plant-based egg and meat alternatives, as a way to increase food production while turning away from livestock farming (See; nycfoodpolicy 2022 and neuronews.green 2022). China is also planning to genetically modify and edit plants to improve their performance (See; Reuters 2022). Oxford Academic (2022) offers many Scientific journal articles on genetically modifying crops, with most articles mentioning the use of CRISPR (Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) technology. Gingko Bioworks founded in 2018, is “working towards a future where genetic engineering can help make foods that are sustainable, healthier, delicious, and accessible to everyone.”


The American Chemical Society (ACS) released an interesting article in August 2022 about recycling wind turbine blades into food (See; acs.org 2022). The ACS article states:


“Digesting the thermoplastic resin in an alkaline solution released poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA), a

common acrylic material for windows, car taillights and many other items. Raising the temperature of the

digestion converted PMMA into poly(methacrylic acid), a super-absorbent polymer that is used in diapers.

The alkaline digestion also produced potassium lactate, which can be purified and made into candy and

sports drinks. “We recovered food-grade potassium lactate and used it to make gummy bear candies, which

I ate,” Dorgan says” (See; acs.org 2022).


Bugs, Bugs, Bugs


Actor Robert Downy Jr appeared on Steven Colbert’s Late Night Show in February 2021. In Downy Jr’s appearance, he mentions a few variations of insect protein suitable for human consumption. Vanity Fair in January 2018 released a video of Nicole Kidman eating an assortment of insects.


Robert Downy Jr on Steven Colbert (Skip to 7:08):


Nicole Kidman on Vanity Fair:


In a report published by The Conversation in January 2017 titled Eating insects has long made sense in Africa. The world must catch up and discusses how 2 million people (more common in Africa) worldwide are eating insects. This article states that: “Given their (insects) nutritional value and their potential for mass production, insects could help address the challenge of food security.” According to their website, The Conversation is “a nonprofit, independent news organization dedicated to unlocking the knowledge of experts for the public good. We publish trustworthy and informative articles written by academic experts for the general public and edited by our team of journalists” (See; The Conversation 2011).


The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released a 187 page report in 2013 titled EdibleInsects: future prospects for food and feed security . On page 10 of the report, it provides us with the major groups of edible insects:


“Globally, the most common insects consumed are beetles (31 percent). The consumption of caterpillars

(Lepidoptera), especially popular in sub-Saharan Africa, is estimated at 18 percent. Bees, wasps and ants

(Hymenoptera) come in third at 14 percent (these insects are especially common in Latin America).

Following these are grasshoppers, locusts and crickets (Orthoptera) (13 percent); cicadas, leafhoppers,

planthoppers, scale insects and true bugs (Hemiptera) (10 percent); termites (Isoptera) (3 percent);

dragonflies (Odonata) (3 percent); flies (Diptera) (2 percent); and other orders (5 percent)”

(FAO Edible Insects, 2013 pg 10).


In August 2015, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released an article titled Why the world needs insects on the importance of insects to the world environment. Without bugs, the food chain would diminish:

“Our total food supply would be severely restricted without insects. We would suffer from a variety of

deficiencies as we would have very little fresh fruit and vegetables to eat. Insects are pollinators and

many crop yields would suffer if they didn’t exist. Certain products like silk and honey would simply not

exist. The food chain would diminish. There would be no birds, or any other animals that rely on insects

as food” (See; WEF 2015).


In January 2016, the WEF released an article titled Insects: the secret weapon to saving food waste? offering one solution to climate change: “Instead of giving up consumption, it implies making more of what we already have. One solution that is drawing increasing interest is using insects to turn waste into edible food” (See; WEF 2016). To utilize this potential, the WEF advises insect farming:


“Currently, there is a lack of policy specifically for insect farming, and the default is to rely on policies

originally created with animals from completely different classes in mind. This ignores major differences

between insects and other livestock species. Conversely, there are safety challenges to reprocessing waste,

and better regulation here is urgently needed” (See; WEF 2016).


Then in April 2018, WEF released an article titled Could insect farms meet our food demands of the future? does not mention using insect farms for human consumption, though:


“Humans have been eating insects for centuries, but the practice is not common in many western cultures

and still spooks food regulators…Black soldier fly larvae production has gained a handful of approvals in

Europe, Canada and the United States, mostly for use in fish farms. Poultry, swine and pet food regulations

are not as far along” (See; WEF 2018).


The WEF article released in August 2017 titled Fancy a bug burger? A Swiss supermarket is selling food made from insectsdiscussing a restaurant in Switzerland selling an insect-based foods for human consumption. The WEF sees that eating insects is one way to solve climate: “Getting our protein from insects could help ease the burden that our diets place on the climate. Insects could also help meet the global food security challenge” (See; WEF 2017). In a July 2018 article released by the WEF titled Good grub: why we might be eating insects soonhighlights reasons why eating bugs is better for human nutrition and the environment. The WEF sees the animal to bug farm transition easy for farmers:


“From the farmer’s point of view, raising insects is going to be radically different from raising sheep, pigs, or

cattle. No more coping with mud, muck and filth. An end to shifting heavy sacks of feed. And forget about having

to go outdoors in all weather to manhandle livestock. The requirement for investment in equipment will be different

too. This will be farming on a much smaller scale, reducing the need for large and expensive machinery”

(See; WEF 2018).


An article released by the WEF in July 2021 titled Why we need to give insects the role they deserve in our food systemsstates how insect protein: “has high-quality properties and can be used as an alternative source of protein throughout the food chain, from feed for aquaculture to ingredients for nutritional supplements for humans and pets.” Another WEF article released in February 2022 titled 5 reasons why eating insects could reduce climate change examines 5 reasons why insects can reduce climate change. Those reasons are:

  1. “Edible insects can produceequivalent amounts of quality protein when compared to animals.”

  2. “Insects require less care and upkeep than livestock.”

  3. “We're actually running out of protein.”

  4. 4“Insects are part of a virtuous eco-cycle.”

  5. You can start small and work your way up.”


What if one finds eating insects is gross? Well a WEF article released in September 2019 titled A psychologist explains why we find some food disgusting - and why it matters states that:


“Disgust likely began as a powerful “basic” emotional reaction that evolved to steer us away from (and literally

eject) potential contaminants – food that smelled and tasted bad. You can think of it as originally being a “don’t

eat that” emotion. The disgust system tends to be “conservative” – rejecting valid sources of possible nutrition

that have characteristics implying they might be risky, and guiding us towards food choices that are ostensibly

safer.”


Fortunately, the article says our disgust can be manipulated: “our results suggest evaluations of a product’s perceived naturalness, taste, health risk, and visual appeal explains about half of the disgust effect…marketing campaigns could help shift attitudes about what is “natural.” It has been done before” (See; WEF 2019).


Conclusion


As stated previously, the worldwide record high inflation and food shortages are blamed on the War in Ukraine. Prices of cereals, meat, wheat, and vegetable oils have dropped slightly as of September 2022 compared to the record highs in June 2022. Several low-income countries have seen mass protests and civil unrest due to the record high inflation and food shortages. Instead of addressing the food shortages, countries (notably Europe and Canada) are electing to impose policies that hinder agricultural production. These European policies resulted in huge farmer protests in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Similar approaches, like the nitrogen fertilizer bans, were implemented in Sri Lanka, which resulted in massive agricultural devastation in the country.


What is clear is that major agricultural producing countries in Western Europe and Canada want to drastically reduce our emissions by 2030 and slowly lean away from livestock farming with the culling of a large percentage of farm animals. As of 2022, we are only at the beginning of this transition, during a time of global inflation and food shortages. To replace livestock farming and feed the future population, it looks like genetically engineered food and insects will make their way into our diets.


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By: Nicholas Qua

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